Due to the adverse impact of the postponement of post-holiday resumption of work due to the raging of the new crown pneumonia virus, the spot price of the national building materials market was stable and weak last week, and the adjustment range ranged from 30-200 yuan / ton. However, there are also manufacturers and traders who continue to wait, and are not willing to adjust. Looking at the steel market this week, through a multi-angle and multi-factor analysis, we predict that the steel price may realize a trend of steady, medium and small rises.

(1) From a bullish point of view: 1. The number of blast furnace steel mills across the country has increased significantly recently, and the supply pressure has been further eased; 2. Starting from February 10, some enterprises will resume work, and market trade will be slightly improved, some In areas where the epidemic situation is generally stable, construction will resume work according to the situation; 3. Although it is adversely affected by the epidemic in the short term, under the effect of increasing the counter-cyclical adjustment of the economy, the fundamentals of the economy in the medium and long term remain stable and improving. The performance of the demand side of building materials such as infrastructure and infrastructure is still optimistic;

(2) From a bad point of view: 1. In order to prevent the spread of the epidemic, the return of personnel and logistics have been greatly affected, and the market demand is basically stagnant; 2. During the Spring Festival, steel mills Inventory and social inventory have entered the stage of rapid accumulation, resulting in greater pressure on inventory; 3. Downstream real estate sales are affected, and the return of real estate enterprises' funds is blocked, which will affect the pace of real estate enterprises to acquire land. To sum up, we expect that although the short-term fundamentals are hard to say optimistic, as some companies start to resume work this week, the market situation may improve. It is expected that the overall performance of steel prices will be stable next week, and even slightly follow the rebound of futures prices. The increase is about 20-60 yuan / ton.